Example 9: How roulette can influence the number of UN countries in Africa
- First ideas drop on a blank slate – when presenting your solutions to the client, the first one does not have to fight with other solutions for space in their mind. It is the clearest, and thus can be regarded as the best.
First of all, set the agenda and stick to it. If the discussion gets stuck, set a time limit. When it runs out, note the necessary points and move forward.
In the case of meetings with colleagues, ask them to send their solutions ahead of the meeting, so everyone can read and evaluate them at their own convenience.
And in the case of clients … use it to your advantage! Present the solution you believe to be the best first and anchor the presentation or discussion around it on purpose.
Examples of anchoring in estimating numbers
Do you think your estimates are the result of well-calibrated sense trained over the years? Decades of research seem to suggest otherwise – most of the time they are easily swayed by random anchors.
In a now famous experiment from 1974, Tversky and Kahneman influenced numbers on a roulette wheel. But don’t worry – it was all in the name of science.
They rigged the wheel in such a way that it landed on either 10 or 65.After the spin, they asked unknowing participants of the study a completely unrelated question: “What percentage of countries in Africa are part of the United Nations?”
Of course. This number served as a really convincing anchor – people exposed to the number 10 guessed on average that 25% of countries were part of the UN, while the guesses of the people exposed to the number 65 were much higher – 45% on average.
